Revenue estimator
How step 1 of the profitability calculator projects a prospective club's annual revenue from the most similar comparable clubs.
Comparable cohort
The cohort is active clubs in a country your subscription grants, with a court count in the 0.5x to 1.5x band of the entered count and an indoor share within 0.25 of the entered split. The search starts within 10 km of the pin and widens stepwise: first to 25 and 50 km, then with loosened similarity criteria, then into the wider region (150 and 300 km) and finally across the whole licensed market. The estimate uses the first stage with enough clubs and observable data and discloses the comparison basis in the result (nearby, widened criteria, wider region or whole market). A club bookable through several booking routes counts once, and a club whose observed bookings are spread across several routes stays out of the cohort. Each cohort club contributes one value per metric; the band is the median and interquartile range across clubs. A stage with fewer than 3 clubs is skipped rather than shown as a misleading estimate.
Utilization (demand rate)
Utilization is the demand rate: booked / (free + booked) court-hours, summed across the cohort then divided (court-hour-weighted). We report both the cohort average and the per-club p25/p50/p75 band that drives the low, median and high estimate.
Prime time
Prime time is weekday evenings (Monday to Friday, 17:00 to 22:00 local) plus weekend daytime (Saturday and Sunday, 10:00 to 20:00 local). The prime-time fill rate is the demand rate restricted to those hours. It is shown as context and does not change the projection.
Open hours per year
Annual court-hours per court is a documented assumption: 16 open hours per day (06:00 to 22:00) over 365 days, so 5840 court-hours per court per year. We do not yet have a per-club open-hours envelope, and the observed slot window is only a forward four-week snapshot, so using it would conflate observation coverage with operating hours. Revisit when the open-hours envelope is available. Step 2 of the calculator does not use this envelope: there you set open hours and usable days yourself (prefilled at 14 hours over 355 days for a hall conversion). The two annual revenues therefore rest on different envelopes and are not directly comparable.
The projection
Annual revenue = utilization times realized price per court-hour times open hours per year times court count. The realized price is your target price, or the cohort median when you choose to use the comparable price. The low, median and high come from the cohort demand p25, p50 and p75, each adjusted by the utilization slider and priced at the chosen basis; the price premium slider scales the price. The result is in this market's currency.
Coverage indicator
The data basis comes from the number of cohort clubs that actually carry measured data in the window: low under 10, medium from 10, high from 30. Those clubs are what the demand rate is measured on, and since the whole projection is demand rate times price times hours, they are what it rests on. The cohort itself can be much larger than that number; the smaller one is what we disclose. With no demand rate for any club the data basis is none. When the cohort clubs fall so close together that low and high are practically the same number, we show a single estimate instead of a range that is not there.
Caveats
This is a comparable-based estimate, not a forecast for a specific operator. It assumes the new club performs like the most similar comparable clubs (from nearby, the wider region or the whole market, as disclosed), ignores ramp-up, seasonality, cost and membership models, and uses observed indicative prices.
Correction of 23 Aug 2026
The comparable price comes from the same realized prices as the club report. Until 23 Aug 2026 those read too low, because one product's price was spread across the whole connected booking time, and the revenue estimate read low with them. Since then we compute on the corrected basis, and the booking history was recomputed with it, back to 2026-07-22.
This page describes the calculation as currently implemented in the product.
This page as of 23 Aug 2026. Changes to published figures