Profitability model
How the profitability calculator works through investment, financing, operations and revenue of a prospective club over ten years, with the origin of every number disclosed.
The origin of every number
Every input carries one of three origins. Observed: taken from the booking data of your comparable cohort, with its club count n. Assumption: a preset industry figure with its typical range. Your input: set or overridden by you. If you override an observed value you can reset it at any time.
Investment
The investment is the sum of the cost lines of your construction type. Lines like courts, foundation or lighting scale with the court count; planning and other are one-off amounts. Public funding is deducted as a percentage; the model computes on the investment after funding. Year 7 additionally books the carpet and net renewal per court as capital expenditure.
Financing
The loan is the investment after funding minus equity. Yearly debt service follows the annuity formula A = L × i / (1 - (1 + i)^-n) with loan L, interest rate i and term n years; after the term it ends.
Operating costs
Rent, energy, maintenance, insurance, staff and software and marketing are entered monthly and multiplied by twelve. Air domes carry a winter surcharge per court from November to March (five months). Costs are entered net of VAT (input-tax deduction assumed). From year 2 operating costs and prices rise nominally by 2% per year; the debt service stays fixed. As an honesty anchor the surface shows your operating costs as a share of expected revenue next to the industry norm of about 45% and warns below 30%.
Revenue
Revenue is utilization based: courts × usable days × open hours × (peak share × peak utilization × peak price + off-peak share × off-peak utilization × off-peak price). With an estimate present, peak utilization and peak price come from the cohort, off-peak utilization is derived from the demand rate and the off-peak price is set at 80% of the median price. Three scenarios scale the utilizations by 0.8, 1.0 and 1.15, each capped at 95%. Year 1 assumes 75% of steady-state revenue (ramp-up). Extra revenue is an optional monthly line, conservatively defaulted to 0. Open hours and usable days are your own inputs here (prefilled at 14 hours over 355 days for a hall conversion, 210 days outdoor). The step 1 revenue estimate instead assumes 16 open hours over 365 days, gross and without a ramp-up, so the two annual figures differ.
VAT
All prices are gross including 20% VAT. The results compute on net values: net = gross / 1.20. The rate is the standard rate of the market you are currently viewing; it comes from the markets config rather than a fixed number in the model. The toggle on the revenue card shows both views.
Break-even utilization
Break-even utilization is the uniform utilization at which a normal year's net revenue covers operating costs and debt service: u = (operating costs + debt service) × 1.20 / (courts × days × hours × blended price), with blended price = peak share × peak price + off-peak share × off-peak price. Extra revenue is deliberately excluded. A value above 100% means: not reachable at these prices and costs.
Payback
Two views, both with linear interpolation within the crossing year: project (pre-financing cash flow covers the investment after funding) and equity payback (post-debt cash flow covers the equity stake). If the target is not reached within ten years the surface says so instead of extrapolating.
Net ROI and annualized return
The 10-year net ROI is (cumulative pre-financing cash flow - investment) / investment, the net surplus rather than a gross multiple. The annualized return is geometric: (recovery / investment) to the power of 1/10, minus 1. It values recoveries only at the end and is therefore more conservative than an IRR. All figures pre-tax.
Deliberately not modeled
Taxes and depreciation (all results are pre-tax), NPV and IRR, land purchase and membership models. Each of these limits is also stated right at the calculator.
This page describes the calculation as currently implemented in the product.
This page as of 16 Aug 2026. Changes to published figures